Grinstead-Snell-Probability · Problem 27

Combinatorics

Mathematics · hypothesis-testing

Problem

John claims that he has extrasensory powers and can tell which of two symbols is on a card turned face down (see Example 3.11). To test his ability he is asked to do this for a sequence of trials. Let the null hypothesis be that he is just guessing, so that the probability is 1/21/2 of his getting it right each time, and let the alternative hypothesis be that he can name the symbol correctly more than half the time. Devise a test with the property that the probability of a type 1 error is less than .05.05 and the probability of a type 2 error is less than .05.05 if John can name the symbol correctly 75 percent of the time.

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