Grinstead-Snell-Probability · Problem 32

Combinatorics

Mathematics · optimization-probability

Problem

A small boy is lost coming down Mount Washington. The leader of the search team estimates that there is a probability pp that he came down on the east side and a probability 1−p1-p that he came down on the west side. He has nn people in his search team who will search independently and, if the boy is on the side being searched, each member will find the boy with probability uu. Determine how he should divide the nn people into two groups to search the two sides of the mountain so that he will have the highest probability of finding the boy. How does this depend on uu?

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