Grinstead-Snell-Probability · Problem 3.3.2

Conditional Probability

Mathematics · card-shuffling-probability

Problem

Show that if we start with the identity ordering of {1,2,…,n}\{1, 2, \ldots, n\}, then the probability that an aa-shuffle leads to an ordering with exactly rr rising sequences equals (n+a−rn)anA(n,r),\frac{\binom{n+a-r}{n}}{a^n} A(n, r), for 1≤r≤a1 \leq r \leq a.

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