Thermodynamic Limit and Fluctuation Suppression

A cup of water at room temperature does not spontaneously freeze on one side and boil on the other, even though nothing in the microscopic laws forbids it. The reason is statistical: such a large fluctuation is astronomically improbable. But small fluctuations happen constantly — the energy of a system in a heat bath, or the number of molecules in a region, is always jittering around its mean. The central fact of the thermodynamic limit is that while these fluctuations never vanish, their relative size shrinks as the system grows, scaling as 1/N1/\sqrt{N}. This single scaling law is the quiet foundation of all of thermodynamics. It is why "temperature," "pressure," and "energy density" are sharp, reproducible numbers for a macroscopic sample rather than fuzzy, ill-defined averages. It is why the different statistical ensembles agree. And it is why thermodynamics — a theory with no fluctuations at all — is an exact description of macroscopic matter: the fluctuations are simply too small to see. For a mole of gas the relative energy fluctuation is about one part in 101210^{12}, far below any measurement. The scaling follows from a fluctuation–response relation. The energy variance in the canonical ensemble is ⟨ΔE2⟩=kBT2CV\langle\Delta E^2\rangle=k_BT^2C_V, and both the heat capacity CVC_V and the mean energy UU are extensive — proportional to NN. Therefore the standard deviation σE=kBT2CV\sigma_E=\sqrt{k_BT^2C_V} grows only as N\sqrt{N}, while the mean UU grows as NN, and their ratio falls as 1/N1/\sqrt{N}. For the monatomic ideal gas this becomes the exact, memorable result σE/⟨E⟩=2/(3N)\sigma_E/\langle E\rangle=\sqrt{2/(3N)}.

⚡ Key Takeaways
  • Fluctuations of extensive quantities never disappear, but their relative size shrinks: σX/⟨X⟩∼1/N\sigma_X/\langle X\rangle\sim1/\sqrt{N}.
  • The energy fluctuation obeys the fluctuation–response relation ⟨ΔE2⟩=kBT2CV\langle\Delta E^2\rangle=k_BT^2C_V; both CVC_V and UU are extensive.
  • For the monatomic ideal gas this gives the exact result σE/⟨E⟩=2/(3N)\sigma_E/\langle E\rangle=\sqrt{2/(3N)}.
  • Numerically that is ≈8%\approx8\% for N=100N=100 but ≈10−12\approx10^{-12} for a mole — which is why macroscopic thermodynamics has no visible fluctuations.
  • The same 1/N1/\sqrt{N} suppression is what makes intensive variables sharp and the statistical ensembles equivalent.
  • Key idea: the standard deviation of an extensive quantity grows as N\sqrt{N} while its mean grows as NN, so the relative fluctuation vanishes as 1/N1/\sqrt{N} in the thermodynamic limit.
💡 The Core Insight

Extensive quantities (energy, particle number, volume) fluctuate with a standard deviation ∝N\propto\sqrt{N} but a mean ∝N\propto N, so their relative fluctuation dies as 1/N1/\sqrt{N}. This vanishing relative width is why macroscopic thermodynamic variables are sharp and reproducible, and why the different ensembles give the same answers. For the monatomic ideal gas, σE/⟨E⟩=2/(3N)\sigma_E/\langle E\rangle=\sqrt{2/(3N)}.

The physical picture

Consider a system in a heat bath. Energy flows back and forth, so at any instant the system's energy differs from its long-time average by some ΔE\Delta E. The size of this jitter is set by the heat capacity: a system that can soak up a lot of energy for a small temperature change (large CVC_V) fluctuates more. But here is the crucial point about scaling. Double the system — put two identical copies side by side. The energies of the two halves fluctuate independently, so their fluctuations partly cancel: the variance of the total is the sum of the variances (grows as NN), so the standard deviation grows only as N\sqrt{N}. Meanwhile the mean energy simply doubles (grows as NN). Relative jitter therefore falls. This is the same law of large numbers that makes a poll of ten thousand people far more reliable than a poll of ten. Independent contributions add in variance, not in standard deviation, so averaging suppresses relative noise as 1/N1/\sqrt{N}. A macroscopic sample is a poll of 102310^{23} molecules; its "opinion" — the energy density — is sharp to a part in 101210^{12}.

Figure
Independent subsystems: fluctuations add in variance, so the standard deviation of the total energy grows as √N while the mean grows as N — the relative jitter falls as 1/√N.
1 cell σ ∝ 1 ⟨E⟩ ∝ 1 N cells (independent) σ ∝ √N ⟨E⟩ ∝ N σ/⟨E⟩ ∝ 1/√N → 0 variances add, not deviations

The punchline plot shows the relative energy fluctuation of an ideal gas versus NN on log axes: a clean straight line of slope −1/2-1/2, dropping from a visible 8%8\% at N=100N=100 to an invisible 10−1210^{-12} at a mole. The dashed line marks the resolution of any real experiment — everything to its right is thermodynamics with no measurable noise.

Figure
Punchline: the exact ideal-gas relative energy fluctuation √(2/(3N)) versus N on log axes — a straight line of slope −1/2 falling from 8% at N=100 to 10⁻¹² at N_A, crossing below any experimental resolution.
log₁₀ N → log₁₀ (σ_E/⟨E⟩) σ_E/⟨E⟩ = √(2/3N), slope −1/2 N=100: 8.2% N=N_A: 1.05×10⁻¹² experimental resolution

The core equations

The size of energy fluctuations in the canonical ensemble is fixed, not free — it is a second derivative of the log partition function, and it equals a thermodynamic response function. This is the fluctuation–response relation for energy.

⟨ΔE2⟩≡⟨E2⟩−⟨E⟩2=∂2ln⁡Z∂β2=kBT2 CV(1)\langle\Delta E^2\rangle \equiv \langle E^2\rangle-\langle E\rangle^2 = \frac{\partial^2\ln Z}{\partial\beta^2} = k_BT^2\,C_V \qquad (1)

where: ZZ — canonical partition function; β=1/kBT\beta=1/k_BT; CV=(∂U/∂T)VC_V=(\partial U/\partial T)_V — heat capacity at constant volume. The variance of the energy is kBT2k_BT^2 times the heat capacity: fluctuation on the left, response on the right. Since CVC_V and U=⟨E⟩U=\langle E\rangle are both extensive, dividing the standard deviation by the mean produces the 1/N1/\sqrt{N} scaling explicitly.

σE⟨E⟩=kBT2CVU  ∝  NN=1N(2)\frac{\sigma_E}{\langle E\rangle}=\frac{\sqrt{k_BT^2C_V}}{U}\;\propto\;\frac{\sqrt{N}}{N}=\frac{1}{\sqrt{N}} \qquad (2)

where: CV=NcC_V=Nc and U=NuU=Nu with intensive c,uc,u, so σE/⟨E⟩=kBT2c/u2 /N\sigma_E/\langle E\rangle=\sqrt{k_BT^2c/u^2}\,/\sqrt{N}. The prefactor is intensive; only the 1/N1/\sqrt{N} carries the size dependence. For the monatomic ideal gas everything is explicit: U=32NkBTU=\tfrac32 Nk_BT and CV=32NkBC_V=\tfrac32 Nk_B, giving an exact closed form with no unknown constants.

  σE⟨E⟩=23N  (monatomic ideal gas)(3)\boxed{\;\frac{\sigma_E}{\langle E\rangle}=\sqrt{\frac{2}{3N}}\;} \qquad (\text{monatomic ideal gas}) \qquad (3)

where: the number 2/32/3 comes from kBT2CV/U2=(kBT2⋅32NkB)/(32NkBT)2=2/(3N)k_BT^2C_V/U^2=(k_BT^2\cdot\tfrac32 Nk_B)/(\tfrac32 Nk_BT)^2=2/(3N). This is the cleanest possible illustration of the thermodynamic-limit suppression. Because the variance is kBT2CV≥0k_BT^2C_V\ge0, the relation also forces a stability condition: a positive variance requires a positive heat capacity in the canonical ensemble.

⟨ΔE2⟩=kBT2CV≥0  ⟹  CV≥0(4)\langle\Delta E^2\rangle=k_BT^2C_V\ge0\;\Longrightarrow\;C_V\ge0 \qquad (4)

where: the left side is manifestly a variance (non-negative), so CVC_V cannot be negative in a canonical (fixed-TT) description. A negative CVC_V can appear only in the microcanonical ensemble for non-extensive systems — a signal of ensemble inequivalence.

Derivation AThe energy fluctuation equals kT²C_V

The goal is to prove the fluctuation–response relation ⟨ΔE2⟩=kBT2CV\langle\Delta E^2\rangle=k_BT^2C_V directly from the canonical partition function, showing that the spontaneous energy jitter of a system in a heat bath is completely determined by its heat capacity. The strategy is to recognize that successive β\beta-derivatives of ln⁡Z\ln Z generate the cumulants of the energy: the first gives the mean, the second gives the variance.

Step 1. In the canonical ensemble ⟨E⟩=−∂ln⁡Z/∂β\langle E\rangle=-\partial\ln Z/\partial\beta, because each Boltzmann weight e−βEe^{-\beta E} brings down a factor −E-E upon differentiation.

Step 2. Differentiate again: ∂2ln⁡Z/∂β2=−∂⟨E⟩/∂β=⟨E2⟩−⟨E⟩2=⟨ΔE2⟩\partial^2\ln Z/\partial\beta^2=-\partial\langle E\rangle/\partial\beta=\langle E^2\rangle-\langle E\rangle^2=\langle\Delta E^2\rangle. The second logarithmic derivative is always the variance (the second cumulant).

Step 3. Convert the β\beta-derivative to a TT-derivative: ∂/∂β=−kBT2 ∂/∂T\partial/\partial\beta=-k_BT^2\,\partial/\partial T. Hence ⟨ΔE2⟩=−∂⟨E⟩/∂β=kBT2 ∂U/∂T=kBT2CV\langle\Delta E^2\rangle=-\partial\langle E\rangle/\partial\beta=k_BT^2\,\partial U/\partial T=k_BT^2C_V. Why the logarithm. Derivatives of ZZ itself give raw moments; derivatives of ln⁡Z\ln Z give cumulants — mean, variance, skewness — which is why ln⁡Z\ln Z (not ZZ) is the generating function of choice and why the second derivative is precisely the variance.

Step 4. Test on the ideal gas: Z∝β−3N/2Z\propto\beta^{-3N/2}, so ln⁡Z=−3N2ln⁡β+const\ln Z=-\tfrac{3N}{2}\ln\beta+\text{const}. Then ⟨E⟩=−∂βln⁡Z=3N2β\langle E\rangle=-\partial_\beta\ln Z=\tfrac{3N}{2\beta} and ⟨ΔE2⟩=∂β2ln⁡Z=3N2β2\langle\Delta E^2\rangle=\partial^2_\beta\ln Z=\tfrac{3N}{2\beta^2}. Both match kBT2CVk_BT^2C_V with CV=32NkBC_V=\tfrac32 Nk_B. Verified: symbolic ∂β2ln⁡Z=3N2β2\partial^2_\beta\ln Z=\tfrac{3N}{2\beta^2} equals kBT2CVk_BT^2C_V after substituting β=1/kBT\beta=1/k_BT, CV=32NkBC_V=\tfrac32 Nk_B — verify_aq-sm-thermodynamic-limit-fluctuations.py.

Derivation BThe relative fluctuation scales as one over root N

The goal is to turn the fluctuation–response relation into the central scaling law of the thermodynamic limit, σE/⟨E⟩∼1/N\sigma_E/\langle E\rangle\sim1/\sqrt{N}, and to nail the exact ideal-gas coefficient. The key is that CVC_V and UU are both extensive, so their combination in the ratio leaves a pure 1/N1/\sqrt{N} dependence — the statistical shadow of the law of large numbers.

Step 1. Write the extensive quantities as CV=NcC_V=Nc and U=NuU=Nu with c,uc,u intensive (per-particle). Then σE=kBT2CV=kBT2Nc\sigma_E=\sqrt{k_BT^2C_V}=\sqrt{k_BT^2 Nc} grows as N\sqrt{N}.

Step 2. The mean ⟨E⟩=U=Nu\langle E\rangle=U=Nu grows as NN. Their ratio is σE/⟨E⟩=kBT2Nc/(Nu)=kBT2c/u2⋅N−1/2\sigma_E/\langle E\rangle=\sqrt{k_BT^2 Nc}/(Nu)=\sqrt{k_BT^2c/u^2}\cdot N^{-1/2}.

Step 3. The prefactor kBT2c/u2\sqrt{k_BT^2c/u^2} is intensive (no NN), so the entire size dependence is N−1/2N^{-1/2}. Multiply by N\sqrt{N} and the result is NN-independent — the defining signature of 1/N1/\sqrt{N} scaling. Why it must be 1/N1/\sqrt N. Fluctuations of independent subsystems add in variance (∝N\propto N), so the deviation grows as N\sqrt N; the mean grows as NN; the ratio therefore falls as 1/N1/\sqrt N. Any extensive observable behaves the same way.

Step 4. For the monatomic ideal gas, c=32kBc=\tfrac32 k_B and u=32kBTu=\tfrac32 k_BT, so kBT2c/u2=kBT2⋅32kB/(32kBT)2=2/3k_BT^2c/u^2=k_BT^2\cdot\tfrac32 k_B/(\tfrac32 k_BT)^2=2/3. Hence σE/⟨E⟩=2/(3N)\sigma_E/\langle E\rangle=\sqrt{2/(3N)} — equation (3), exact. Verified: σE/⟨E⟩=2/(3N)\sigma_E/\langle E\rangle=\sqrt{2/(3N)} symbolically; multiplying by N\sqrt N gives an NN-independent constant; numeric 1.05×10−121.05\times10^{-12} at N=NAN=N_A and 8.16%8.16\% at N=100N=100 — verify script.

Limiting cases

The scaling law bridges the noisy world of small systems and the deterministic world of thermodynamics.

CaseResultMeaning
N→∞N\to\inftyσE/⟨E⟩→0\sigma_E/\langle E\rangle\to0Thermodynamic limit; intensive variables are sharp, ensembles equivalent.
Monatomic ideal gasσE/⟨E⟩=2/(3N)\sigma_E/\langle E\rangle=\sqrt{2/(3N)}Exact; the reference case.
N∼102N\sim10^2 (nanocluster)∼10%\sim10\%Fluctuations visible; ensemble choice and finite-size effects matter.
N=1N=1 (single molecule)O(1)O(1)"Thermodynamics" of one particle is meaningless; only distributions exist.
Near a critical pointCV→∞C_V\to\infty, ratio growsFluctuations become anomalously large even at macroscopic NN; the 1/N1/\sqrt{N} argument breaks near TcT_c.
⚠️ Common pitfall

The 1/N1/\sqrt{N} law suppresses relative fluctuations, not absolute ones. The absolute variance ⟨ΔE2⟩=kBT2CV\langle\Delta E^2\rangle=k_BT^2C_V actually grows with system size (it is extensive). What vanishes is the ratio to the mean. A second trap: the scaling assumes a normal (short-range) system where CVC_V and UU are extensive and CVC_V stays finite. Near a critical point CVC_V diverges, and for long-range forces UU is super-extensive — in both cases the naive 1/N1/\sqrt{N} argument fails and fluctuations can be macroscopically large. The law is the generic behavior, not a universal guarantee.

Worked examples

Example 1 — Relative energy fluctuation of a mole of gas (enumerate, apply, boundary number). Take one mole of a monatomic ideal gas, N=NA=6.022×1023N=N_A=6.022\times10^{23}, at any temperature.

Step 1. Use the exact formula σE/⟨E⟩=2/(3N)\sigma_E/\langle E\rangle=\sqrt{2/(3N)}.

Step 2. Substitute: σE/⟨E⟩=2/(3×6.022×1023)=1.107×10−24=1.05×10−12\sigma_E/\langle E\rangle=\sqrt{2/(3\times6.022\times10^{23})}=\sqrt{1.107\times10^{-24}}=\mathbf{1.05\times10^{-12}}.

Step 3. Interpret: the energy of a mole of gas is defined to a part in 101210^{12} purely by statistics. No thermometer or calorimeter comes within many orders of magnitude of resolving this jitter, which is why thermodynamics — a fluctuation-free theory — describes macroscopic gases exactly.

Step 4. Boundary number: for the fluctuation to reach a detectable 1%1\% you would need 2/(3N)=0.01\sqrt{2/(3N)}=0.01, i.e. N=2/(3×10−4)=6.7×103N=2/(3\times10^{-4})=\mathbf{6.7\times10^{3}} atoms — a cluster a few nanometers across. Below that, energy fluctuations are experimentally real.

Example 2 — Absolute versus relative for a nanocluster. Take N=100N=100 argon atoms at T=300 KT=300\,\mathrm{K}; compare the absolute and relative energy fluctuations.

Step 1. Mean energy U=32NkBT=32(100)(1.380649×10−23)(300)=6.21×10−19 JU=\tfrac32 Nk_BT=\tfrac32(100)(1.380649\times10^{-23})(300)=\mathbf{6.21\times10^{-19}\,J}.

Step 2. Variance ⟨ΔE2⟩=kBT2CV=kBT2⋅32NkB=(1.380649×10−23)(300)2(32)(100)(1.380649×10−23)=2.57×10−39 J2\langle\Delta E^2\rangle=k_BT^2C_V=k_BT^2\cdot\tfrac32 Nk_B=(1.380649\times10^{-23})(300)^2(\tfrac32)(100)(1.380649\times10^{-23})=2.57\times10^{-39}\,\mathrm{J^2}, so σE=5.07×10−20 J\sigma_E=\mathbf{5.07\times10^{-20}\,J}.

Step 3. Relative fluctuation σE/U=5.07×10−20/6.21×10−19=0.082\sigma_E/U=5.07\times10^{-20}/6.21\times10^{-19}=\mathbf{0.082}, i.e. 8.2%8.2\% — exactly 2/300\sqrt{2/300}. For a 100-atom cluster the energy genuinely jitters by nearly a tenth of its mean, and the concept of a sharp "temperature" is already fraying.

CL
central limit theorem
probability theory · de Moivre 1733 · Lyapunov 1901 · the mathematics behind 1/√N

The central limit theorem is the mathematical engine behind the vanishing of relative fluctuations. It states that the sum of a large number NN of independent random contributions, each with finite variance, has a distribution approaching a Gaussian whose absolute width grows only as N\sqrt{N} while its mean grows as NN — so the relative width shrinks as 1/N1/\sqrt{N}. The total energy of a system with short-range interactions is exactly such a sum: it is built from ∼N\sim N roughly independent local contributions. That is why the relative energy fluctuation σE/⟨E⟩\sigma_E/\langle E\rangle falls as 1/N1/\sqrt{N} and the canonical energy distribution collapses onto a sharp value in the thermodynamic limit. First glimpsed by de Moivre in 1733 and developed by Laplace, then put on a rigorous footing by Lyapunov in 1901, the theorem is the reason macroscopic thermodynamic quantities are sharp even though every microscopic degree of freedom jitters — the statistical-mechanical property of "self-averaging."

⏳ History
1827
— Robert Brown observes the erratic motion of pollen grains, later named Brownian motion.
1905
— Einstein's fluctuation theory of Brownian motion links diffusion to molecular agitation.
1906
— Smoluchowski independently derives the statistical theory of Brownian fluctuations.
1908
— Smoluchowski and Einstein explain critical opalescence via diverging density fluctuations.
1908
— Perrin's experiments on Brownian motion confirm the fluctuation predictions and pin down N_A.

Where this lives today

The 1/N1/\sqrt{N} suppression of relative fluctuations is the license under which every thermodynamic measurement is interpreted, but its breakdown is where much modern physics lives. Nanoscience routinely operates where NN is small enough that fluctuations are large: single-molecule experiments, nanoscale calorimetry, and quantum dots all show energy and number fluctuations that would be invisible in bulk. Stochastic thermodynamics has turned these fluctuations into a resource, with fluctuation theorems (Jarzynski, Crooks) extracting equilibrium free energies from the statistics of small-system trajectories. And near continuous phase transitions the heat capacity diverges, so fluctuations grow anomalously large even in macroscopic samples — the regime where renormalization-group theory replaces the naive law of large numbers.

Going further

References. Pathria & Beale, Statistical Mechanics, 4th ed., §3.6–3.7 and §4.5 · Reif, Fundamentals of Statistical and Thermal Physics, §6.5, §10 · Landau & Lifshitz, Statistical Physics Part 1, §112 (fluctuations) · Kardar, Statistical Physics of Particles, §4 · Sethna, Statistical Mechanics: Entropy, Order Parameters, and Complexity, Ch. 3.

Provenance. The fluctuation–response relation ⟨ΔE2⟩=kBT2CV\langle\Delta E^2\rangle=k_BT^2C_V and the 1/N1/\sqrt{N} scaling are standard (Pathria §3.6, Reif §6.5, Landau–Lifshitz §112). A verifier should confirm: (i) ∂β2ln⁡Z=3N2β2\partial^2_\beta\ln Z=\tfrac{3N}{2\beta^2} equals kBT2CVk_BT^2C_V for the ideal gas; (ii) σE/⟨E⟩=2/(3N)\sigma_E/\langle E\rangle=\sqrt{2/(3N)} exactly; (iii) σE/⟨E⟩⋅N\sigma_E/\langle E\rangle\cdot\sqrt N is NN-independent (the 1/N1/\sqrt N law); (iv) numeric 1.05×10−121.05\times10^{-12} at N=NAN=N_A and 8.16%8.16\% at N=100N=100; (v) ⟨ΔE2⟩≥0⇒CV≥0\langle\Delta E^2\rangle\ge0\Rightarrow C_V\ge0. All in verify_aq-sm-thermodynamic-limit-fluctuations.py. Constants: kB=1.380649×10−23 J/Kk_B=1.380649\times10^{-23}\,\mathrm{J/K}, NA=6.02214076×1023N_A=6.02214076\times10^{23}.

Builds on: Canonical Ensemble · Energy Fluctuations in the Canonical Ensemble · Heat Capacity and Fluctuation-Response Relation · Factorization of the Partition Function Leads to: Derivation of the Canonical Distribution from the Microcanonical Ensemble · Helmholtz Free Energy from the Partition Function · Grand Canonical Ensemble

If fluctuations shrink as 1/√N, do they ever really matter?

Yes, in two important regimes. First, for small systems: at N∼100N\sim100 the relative energy fluctuation is already ∼8%\sim8\%, and single-molecule and nanoscale experiments live entirely in this regime. Second, near critical points: there the heat capacity diverges, so σE/⟨E⟩\sigma_E/\langle E\rangle can be large even for macroscopic NN, and the whole 1/N1/\sqrt{N} argument breaks down. Fluctuations are negligible only for ordinary macroscopic systems away from transitions — which happens to cover most of everyday thermodynamics, and is precisely why thermodynamics works.

Why do variances add but not standard deviations?

Because variance is the mean-square deviation, and for independent contributions the cross terms average to zero: Var(X1+X2)=Var(X1)+Var(X2)\mathrm{Var}(X_1+X_2)=\mathrm{Var}(X_1)+\mathrm{Var}(X_2). Standard deviation is the square root of variance, so it adds "in quadrature," not linearly. When you combine NN independent subsystems, the total variance is NN times a single one, so the total standard deviation is N\sqrt{N} times a single one — while the mean is NN times a single one. The ratio therefore falls as 1/N1/\sqrt{N}. This is the law of large numbers.

Is the ⟨ΔE²⟩=kT²C_V relation exact or an approximation?

It is exact in the canonical ensemble — it follows directly from ⟨ΔE2⟩=∂2ln⁡Z/∂β2\langle\Delta E^2\rangle=\partial^2\ln Z/\partial\beta^2 and the definition CV=∂U/∂TC_V=\partial U/\partial T, with no approximation. What is approximate (to O(ln⁡N/N)O(\ln N/N)) is the statement that this canonical variance also describes an isolated (microcanonical) system, since strictly the microcanonical energy variance is zero. But as a canonical identity, ⟨ΔE2⟩=kBT2CV\langle\Delta E^2\rangle=k_BT^2C_V holds for any system, small or large, interacting or not.

Does this mean a negative heat capacity is impossible?

In the canonical ensemble, yes: ⟨ΔE2⟩=kBT2CV\langle\Delta E^2\rangle=k_BT^2C_V is a variance, which cannot be negative, so CV≥0C_V\ge0 whenever temperature is the fixed control variable. But a negative heat capacity is genuinely real in the microcanonical ensemble for non-extensive systems — most famously self-gravitating star clusters, which get hotter as they lose energy. This is not a contradiction; it is a signature of ensemble inequivalence, and it is exactly the regime where the 1/N1/\sqrt{N} argument (which assumes short-range, extensive behavior) does not apply.

How is this connected to the equivalence of ensembles?

It is the mechanism behind it. Ensemble equivalence holds because the canonical energy distribution is a sharp spike around its mean, with relative width σE/⟨E⟩∼1/N\sigma_E/\langle E\rangle\sim1/\sqrt{N}. As N→∞N\to\infty that spike becomes a delta function at the microcanonical energy, so fixing the temperature (canonical) becomes indistinguishable from fixing the energy (microcanonical). The vanishing relative fluctuation is the reason different ensembles give the same thermodynamics; this article supplies the quantitative scaling, and the equivalence-of-ensembles result draws the conclusion.

What sets the numerical prefactor 2/3 for the ideal gas?

It comes entirely from the ideal gas having 32\tfrac32 degrees of freedom's worth of energy per particle. With U=32NkBTU=\tfrac32 Nk_BT and CV=32NkBC_V=\tfrac32 Nk_B, the combination kBT2CV/U2=(kBT2)(32NkB)/(32NkBT)2=2/(3N)k_BT^2C_V/U^2=(k_BT^2)(\tfrac32 Nk_B)/(\tfrac32 Nk_BT)^2=2/(3N). The 32\tfrac32 in CVC_V and the (32)2(\tfrac32)^2 in U2U^2 combine to give 2/32/3. A diatomic gas with CV=52NkBC_V=\tfrac52 Nk_B and U=52NkBTU=\tfrac52 Nk_BT would give 2/(5N)2/(5N) instead — the prefactor tracks the number of active quadratic degrees of freedom.

Before this

Where this leads